Probability Theory Plus Noise: Descriptive Estimation and Inferential Judgment
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Surprisingly rational: probability theory plus noise explains biases in judgment.
The systematic biases seen in people's probability judgments are typically taken as evidence that people do not use the rules of probability theory when reasoning about probability but instead use heuristics, which sometimes yield reasonable judgments and sometimes yield systematic biases. This view has had a major impact in economics, law, medicine, and other fields; indeed, the idea that peop...
متن کاملTitle Surprisingly rational : Probability theory plus noise explainsbiases in judgment
The systematic biases seen in people’s probability judgments are typically taken as evidence that people do not reason about probability using the rules of probability theory, but instead use heuristics which sometimes yield reasonable judgments and sometimes systematic biases. This view has had a major impact in economics, law, medicine, and other fields; indeed, the idea that people cannot re...
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Given the recent and highly publicized scandals involving psychology researchers who cheated, the proliferation of articles on related topics is unsurprising. As an example, Simons et al. (2011) pointed out subtle ways in which researchers can increase their false positive rate above the nominal level of p < 0.05. From my perspective, a major limitation of the literature on cheating has been a ...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Topics in Cognitive Science
سال: 2018
ISSN: 1756-8757
DOI: 10.1111/tops.12319